The Edmonton Oilers had nowhere to go but up after a dreadful first ten games of the 2023-24 season. Or, at the very least, up and down, which was an improvement (but not enough to save Jay Woodcroft’s job).
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The next ten games went as follows: lose 2, win 3, lose 3, win 2. Everything was there except a Bettman Point, as the Oilers went 5-5-0. This didn’t help the team gain ground in what is now a.548 league, but it was enough to keep them in touch with their competitors in the Western Conference Wild Card race.
This is current as of Monday morning. With 29-30 points apiece, the top three in the Pacific are long gone, but the lower half of the Western Conference isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Sorted by points percentage, the final Wild Card position is presently held by a team with a.500 record. None of them are “hot” either; the featured column on the far right reveals that none have scored more than 12 points in their last ten games. That is, two more than the Oilers, but not quite fading into the distance. Yes, the Oilers will need to go hot at some point, but there are finally some encouraging indicators.
PDO (the sum of shooting % and save percentage) is the key driver of medium-term results like this, as regular readers of this column will know. That fact is easily verified by comparing it to the W-L-O record for each of the ten segments listed above.
The Oilers had abysmal stats in this volatile category for the first ten games, and those bad results continued well into the second before a dramatic adjustment in the last two games. That was enough to get the segment as a whole within a few basis points of the 1.000 midpoint. In the segment, the Oilers outshot their opponents by more than 5 shots per game and outscored them by 6 goals.
Overall, shooting percentage increased by nearly 4 percentage points, from a dismal 8.1% to 11.9%, matching previous season’s 11.8% that topped the NHL. Team save percentage improved from.864 to.879, but goal prevention will remain a primary concern moving ahead. Last year, the team — not “just” the goalies — had a save % of just more than.900, and they’ll need to move much closer to that number in the coming parts.
Nonetheless, the team is improving. Goals for increased by 12 in the second segment, while goals against decreased by 8. Both special teams improved, and on both sides of the ice. The net powerplay percentage (PPGF – SHGA / PP Opportunities) increased from 19% to 24%, while the equivalent net penalty kill rate increased from 72% to 90%.
Our own analysis at the Cult of Hockey finds positive trends as well. The Oilers created 57% of Grade A shots in all scenarios (138 for, 104 against) in the second 10-game set, compared to 52% in the first 10. In terms of the subset of highest-danger chances known as 5-alarm shots, the Oil improved from 47% to 55% (74 for, 61 against). Both figures corroborate the notion that Edmonton’s 54% goal share in that category was purchased and paid for.
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