May 22, 2024

Wolves continue their push to secure a Europa League spot as they battle Crystal Place on Monday. With Tottenham’s victory over Leicester on Sunday, Wolves now need a win to go back ahead by one point for the potentially lone Europa League spot. If Chelsea beat Arsenal in the FA Cup final, then the sixth-place team in the table would qualify for the Europa League.

Crystal Palace have already secured another season in the Premier League, so they will be playing for pride on Monday.

Wolves have been in good form since the restart, grabbing 13 of a possible 21 points and boasting a +3.47 xG differential. They’ve been stout defensively allowing only 0.64 xG per match, which is the best record in the Premier League since the restart.

Wolves’ results at the Molineux Stadium haven’t been great this season, taking only 28 points from 18 matches, which ranks 10th in the Premier League. However, as of late they’ve been dominant at home. Over their last six matches at the Molineux Stadium, Wolves are outscoring their opponents on average by 1.17 xG per match (1.64 xGF, 0.47 xGA).

With a match against Chelsea to finish the season, Wolves need all three points in this match if they want to have a chance at European football next season.

Outside of Norwich, Crystal Palace have been the worst team in the Premier League since the restart. The Eagles seem like they just want the season to end as they’ve lost six straight matches by a combined score of 15 to 2.

The underlying metrics in those six matches have not been pretty, as the Eagles’ offense has been putrid, averaging 0.75 xG per match. In fact, they’ve created only four big scoring chances (greater than 35% chance of scoring) since the restart. With their offense sputtering, it’s difficult to see how they are going to score against Wolves’ defense.

Crystal Palace’s underlying metrics have also been terrible away from home. The Eagles are losing on average by 0.95 xG per match when playing on the road this season (0.85 xGF, 1.80 xGA). I expect their poor road performance to continue on Monday.

I don’t see this match going any other way than a Wolves blowout. Based on my model, I think there is a little value in backing the home side:

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