The Florida Gators are back at practice, and Gator Country will cover each session with public stories and inside information on the boards. Just like always. And the team will get ready to try to win as many games as they can, just like always.
With activities on the field, or at least a field and not just in the workout rooms, I felt like setting an expectation for what the team needs to do this year. One thing is win as many games as possible, like always.
But UF has one of the toughest schedules anyone has ever seen, so winning as many games as possible may not generate a win count much above last year’s five. In fact, Vegas set the early over/under at 5.5, the same as last year. A daunting schedule doesn’t have to define preseason expectations or indeed even final outcomes; the 2006 Gators faced arguably the hardest schedule in the country and still went 13-1 and won it all. However this 2024 team almost certainly isn’t as good as that squad of old, so we do have to calibrate based on the slate.
In lieu of running down the schedule, which is a fool’s errand this early anyway since very little spring practice has happened for anyone, I’m planting this flag: a successful season is proving the team will be ready to make a big leap in 2025.
Now, I know no one wants to hear this. After three straight seasons with a losing final record, another year of building doesn’t sound enticing. And Billy Napier himself will have some real difficulties with employment if the team doesn’t make any kind of leap forward this year, much less next.
However if you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, you can see how the rebuild is potentially coming together for a real surge in ’25.
The biggest single piece of the puzzle was holding onto DJ Lagway in the 2024 class. Any kind of high hopes for next year rest on him showing out early and staying healthy all the way. Feel free to knock on all wood and wood composites near you right now.
But after him in the offense, I think the running back room will likely be in good hands with Treyaun Webb and the two ’24 signees leading the way. The receiver room will have Tre Wilson, Andy Jean, and Aidan Mizell in their third years backed by some blazing speed from Tank Hawkins and TJ Abrams.
Wilson aside, that’s a lot of unproven guys. High potential guys, but unproven. As I like to say: unproven doesn’t mean bad, it just means they haven’t done it yet. This is the year for a lot of those unproven guys to show something for the future, even as veterans like Montrell Johnson, Cam Carroll, and Chimere Dike will get a lot of touches at those positions.
Tight end is in an interesting spot with Hayden Hansen, Arlis Boardingham, and Tony Livingston the top guys for 2025. Hansen played not even two years of tight end at high school, and Boardingham was solely a high school receiver. Livingston gray shirted in Napier’s first class, meaning he signed with the ’22 recruits but didn’t enroll until January ’23. He’s a year older than his class designation but missed a season too. All three have room under their ceilings, and they need to step forward this year.
The offensive line has too many guys to go over all of them in this piece, but there are dudes like Jake Slaughter, Kam Waites, and Rod Kearney who might be ready to break out and who can come back next year. Of players likely to play a lot, only SDSU transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson will be out of eligibility following the season. Continuity may at last pay some dividends, provided the portal doesn’t taketh away much next winter.
The defensive front is as deep as it’s been in years, and all but Cam Jackson, Des Watson, and one-year rental Joey Slackman can return if they choose. Half of Florida’s four 2023 SEC All-Freshman selections were up front with TJ Searcy and Kelby Collins earning those honors, but plenty of other underclassmen played major snaps last year. For as well as they acquitted themselves all things considered, getting all those young guys two years older, stronger, and wiser will make a huge difference in ’25. So will a year’s worth of experience for LJ McCray, who reportedly already looks like a veteran player physically.
At linebacker, I don’t know if Shemar James will be back next year considering his pro potential. However the future could be in very good hands with Grayson Howard and Myles Graham now in the fold. See the caveat about “unproven” from above.
Finally the secondary is essentially split into three groups: veterans who are out of eligibility after this year, promising young guys who haven’t played much, and Jordan Castell. Maybe Devin Moore could qualify as his own group of “potentially great player who can’t ever fight off the injury bug”. Those vets, especially Jason Marshall and Washington transfer Asa Turner, will provide stability. Castell will too. The rest of the young guys need to battle it out to set a hierarchy to get ready for next year and not force the staff to have to dip into the portal for so many guys next winter.
If you picked up on a theme, it’s that there is a lot of promising youth everywhere. There really is. It’s been a bumpy road, and there’s not yet the depth you’d like to see everywhere. However things really could come together next year if the underclassmen come through on their promise and if staff changes, especially the addition of Ron Roberts, pay off.
Napier promised that it wouldn’t be a quick fix, and it hasn’t been. He could have done some things differently to expedite the process. It wouldn’t necessarily have paid off, as Lincoln Riley’s quick roster flush at USC shows. If he didn’t have a Caleb Williams to bring over, the Trojans easily could’ve missed a bowl no different than Florida last year.
If the 2022 season had a theme, it was, “you can’t get there from here”. Napier didn’t go for a quick roster overhaul, and the bulk of the players left over from the Mullen era in some combination didn’t live up to recruiting rankings, didn’t fit the new systems, and/or didn’t fit the new culture. Napier hit a reset button with the large overhaul prior to the ’23 season, and the team looked like it was full of new faces everywhere. Some coaching missteps throughout the year didn’t help that impression either.
Now is the time to consolidate the gains from that overhaul. Napier hasn’t landed many stars from the portal, so it will be his own recruits that will need to lead that way. He came in known as a recruiting ace, so he’ll sink or swim based on his recruiting.
The ’22 year looks more and more like a Year Zero in retrospect. That would make last season like a Year 1, and this one a Year 2. For coaches who have a real future, the biggest improvement is usually from Year 1 to Year 2, so it’s got to show now.
That’s not to completely gloss over the ends of the careers for guys like Graham Mertz, Johnson, Jackson, and the rest of the seniors. They are putting in the unglamorous work of paving the way to a brighter future. They should be appreciated no less than those on this year’s team who have more years of playing in the Swamp ahead.
But as you see how spring goes and especially going into the fall, keep your eyes on the prize. This year’s team should outperform the 5.5 wins expectation if this coaching staff really has it. The season should also make you feel beyond a doubt that the squad will be a beast in 2025. Anything less is not good enough.
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