Running back Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have spent the previous four years with the Green Bay Packers, but one or both could be on their way out at the end of the season.
On Thursday, December 7, The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman published a mailbag in which he examined both players’ fates. Dillon is more replaceable, according to Schneidman’s replies, and hence less likely to be back in green and gold in 2024.
Dillon has proven to be a capable No. 2 running back, but he isn’t your usual feature back. The Packers can select a new No. 2 in the draft for less money and have that player wait behind Jones on the depth chart for a year before taking over lead-back duties in 2025.
Dillon has looked better recently than he did earlier in the season, but he might have needed to establish himself as a legitimate No. 1 back to earn a contract extension, which hasn’t happened and won’t happen.
However, the Packers may release Jones, re-sign Dillon to a one-year contract, and draft someone early to sit behind or share carries with Dillon. However, Dillon and his camp may seek a multiyear contract, something the Packers may be unwilling to do.
In Dillon’s case, the Packers must weigh how much they’d have to pay and how long they’d have to wait versus the type of output they can realistically expect from the RB. That value assessment must be applied to rookies Green Bay could acquire in the mid- or late-rounds of the 2024 NFL draft.
For Jones, the problem is more about how much the Packers can save by cutting or selling him, how much his absence would genuinely impact the run game given his age and recent medical issues, and where else the team might be able to use the money it could save on Jones to strengthen the squad elsewhere.
Jones’ contract has one year left on it after this season, and releasing or moving him before June 1 would free up just under $5 million in cap space. He also recently turned 29, which corresponds to 85 normal human years in running back years.
He’s been entirely healthy for about two games this season, after appearing in 62 of a possible 66 regular-season games over the previous four seasons. I’m not sure you can just let go of someone like Jones, who has been a vital part of the organization both on and off the field, because of one injury-plagued season.
Schneidman is accurate that $5 million in savings may not be worth parting ways with Jones, but the Packers may save far more money in other ways. According to Over The Cap, a post-June 1 cut or trade will save Green Bay over $11.5 million.
on a career-worst 3.5 yards per run, according to Pro Football Reference. Dillon also has just 1 total TD despite playing in all 12 of Green Bay’s contests in 2023, including five starts.
Spotrac estimates Dillon’s market value at $3.5 million per year, which is too much for the Packers to fully guarantee on any kind of multiyear contract moving ahead. He is in the final year of his $5.3 million rookie contract.
Dillon is far from vital, and the Packers can find running backs in the draft, so the career backup is in jeopardy.
That asset, combined with the cap relief, should be enough motivation for him to strike a deal. Jones, along with perennially injured left tackle David Bakhtiari, is among the top cap casualty prospects in Green Bay.
In recent years, the Packers have demonstrated a willingness to part ways with stars (see: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams) while also going young at the offensive skill positions (see: Jordan Love and every pass-catcher on the team in 2023). In other words, Jones and Dillon leaving this summer will not be considered a surprise.
