The Lions passing attack keeps humming along, and last week was a fantastic example of just how multifaceted
is. New Orleans tried to take Amon-Ra St. Brown away, and it just opened up the opportunity for Sam LaPorta to take advantage.
Overall, Detroit ranks sixth in yards per attempt (7.6), seventh in passer rating (98.1), fourth in yards (3,159), 11th in EPA, and seventh in success rate.
One curious recent trend, though, is the lack of downfield passes. From Weeks 1-6, the Lions averaged 6.9 average air yards per attempt. From Week 7 on, that number has dropped to 6.6. For the season now, the Lions rank 29th in intended air yards per attempt. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but a clear shift in strategy.
The previous matchup with the Bears is a bit concerning, but we’ll get more into that looking at Chicago’s pass defense
Last week was a great illustration of the diversity of the Lions passing attack, which is still chugging along. When Amon-Ra St. Brown was attempted to be taken away by New Orleans, it created a window of opportunity for Sam LaPorta.
Detroit is ranked seventh in quarterback rating (98.1), fourth in yards (3,159), eleventh in EPA, seventh in success rate, and sixth overall in yards per attempt (7.6).
The absence of downfield passes is one odd recent development, though. The Lions’ average air yards per attempt during Weeks 1-6 was 6.9. That figure fell to 6.6 starting in Week 7. In intended air yards per attempt this season, the Lions are ranked 29th. While not always a bad thing, this is a definite
One pass rusher added doesn’t seem like it would make much of a difference, but it has. Early in the season, Chicago had one of the worst pass rushes in sports, but Sweat has made the entire Bears front unit into a deadly unit. Chicago was only averaging 14.9 pressures per game in their first eight games, and in five of those contests, they had 13 or fewer. The Bears have applied at least 17 pressures per game on average in their four games with Sweat. That includes games against strong offensive lines like the Vikings and Lions, which is impressive.
In the secondary, Tyrique Stevenson, a rookie, is starting to establish himself, while the Bears recently welcomed back safeties Eddie Jackson and Jaquan Brisker from injury.
The outcomes are clearly seen. In just the last three games, the Bears have recorded seven interceptions and seven sacks.
However, this is where things become complicated. Can we overlook the remaining games of the season or do we have to believe the trend after three games? Is the sample size for this latest uptrend sufficiently large? The Bears are still 16th in yards per attempt (6.9), 26th in passer rating (92.9), 28th in dropback efficiency, and 24th in success rate for the season.
We also cannot, in my judgment, ignore either. Although they have played poorly on defense, they are improving.
T.J. Edwards is the player to watch. Tremaine Edmunds and Edward both recorded interceptions during the Bears’ previous game, which caused the Lions a great deal of trouble. This season, Edwards has been the more reliable player; his PFF grade of 81.2 places him 11th out of all NFL linebackers.
This season, the Lions’ run game has truly blossomed. Although it’s been excellent the entire season, it’s been particularly strong since mid-October.
The team’s reaction without center Frank Ragnow, who is anticipated to miss this game due to a knee injury, will be the key question this week. At second on the team with an 85.3 PFF run blocking grade, Ragnow is almost the focal point of Detroit’s rushing offense. The good news is that Graham Glasgow, who took his place, leads the team in scoring with 77.7. Colby Sorsdal, a rookie, is expected to replace Glasgow at right guard, but he hasn’t had much success. His run blocking grade of 46.5 is the lowest of any lineman on the squad.
For the most part of the season, the Bears’ run defense has been among the best in the league. Nevertheless, the Lions were able to move the ball on the ground during the previous game, especially in the second half when Detroit gained 73 yards on just 10 carries (7.3 YPC). The Lions did, however, have difficulty in the first half (11 rushes, 43 yards, 3.9 YPC).
The Bears are ranked third overall in rush EPA, second in success rate, t-third in rushing touchdowns (6), and second in yards per carry (3.4).
At first glance, this chart appears to be really poor in general. But a closer look will reveal an unsettling pattern. After Justin Fields began to settle into a groove around the Broncos game, his injury in the middle of the Bears’ opening Vikings game caused the pass offense to collapse. The Bears passing offense is suddenly leaning back toward legitimacy when he returned against the Lions.
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