The Las Vegas Raiders elected not to take a quarterback in the first round last year, instead sticking with Jimmy Garoppolo and fourth-round choice Aidan O’Connell. Garoppolo has the NFL’s lowest interception percentage (5.4%) through 11 games, while O’Connell has the third-worst (4.1%).
Unless O’Connell improves significantly, the Raiders will almost certainly use a first-round pick on a quarterback in 2024. Ian Valentino believes they will select Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in the first round.
“Michael Penix Jr. has significantly helped his stock this year, even if his game has shown more cracks recently,” Valentino said in a mock draft published on November 25. “Penix, like Tua Tagovailoa, is a pocket passer with exceptional touch on his throws.” However, he struggles to create on the move or under pressure, thus Vegas needs a top-tier system or blockers in front of him.
Penix has shown significant progress in the last two years and was named the AP Comeback Player of the Year in 2022. Over the last two seasons, he’s thrown 90 touchdowns to only 30 interceptions for the Huskies. He’ll be 24 at the start of next season, so he’ll be a little older, but that shouldn’t preclude him from being picked in the first couple of rounds.
Michael Penix Jr. Draft Profile
Michael Penix Jr.’s athleticism isn’t going to blow teams away. His precision and ability to avoid errant throws make him a bright potential. According to Ian Valentino of Pro Football Network, his ceiling may be extremely low.
“Penix looks a lot like Teddy Bridgewater, except he’s left-handed.” “Penix has a thinner frame, is not overly athletic, and lacks good arm strength when compared to NFL starters,” Valentino wrote in a September 2 essay. “However, he plays to his strengths as well as anyone else, mitigating the offense’s lack of velocity or creative juices, which would expose it to mistakes.”
“He’ll need playmakers who either easily separate or dominate at the catch point to be a serviceable NFL starter.”
Bridgewater has spent much of his career as a backup, so fans may be put off by the comparison. However, Penix has showed a lot for Washington this season, and he may still have more upside than a quarterback like Bridgewater. There are likely three or four better prospects in next year’s draft, but he makes sense if the Raiders have a first-round pick in the middle.
Can Aidan O’Connell Still Win the Long-Term Job?
Aidan O’Connell will have a lot to prove in the coming weeks if he wants to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He played well in the preseason but has been below average in the regular season. The issue with him is that he has very little upward potential.
He’s already 25 and not particularly athletic. He isn’t a raw young prospect who will need a few seasons to grow. It’s difficult to see how he’ll ever be an impact player if he’s not good by the end of the season. He has six more games to establish that he deserves to be a starter, or he will be a backup for the foreseeable future.
“
