Do you recall Mason Rudolph’s 67-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Austin III in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opening preseason game this year? It demonstrated Rudolph’s ability to throw a deep ball with accuracy. And the Steelers might be able to take advantage of it on Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals defense, who have a history of giving up big passing plays, in Rudolph’s 2023 regular-season starting debut.
No team in the NFL has allowed more “explosive” plays—defined as runs of 10 yards or more or passes of 20 yards or more—than the Bengals, whom the Steelers meet at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday. This information was gathered by former analytics staff member Arjun Menon of the New York Jets. Opponents of Cincinnati have completed 56 passes of at least 20 yards.
In terms of opponent yards per pass attempt (7.0) and yards per completion (11.4), the Bengals defense is ranked second-worst in the NFL. No team has ever given up a longer average pass target depth (9.6 yards downfield) to their opponents.
Diontae Johnson (39 yards), George Pickens (43 yards), and tight end Pat Freiermuth (29 yards) all had their longest receptions of the season during the Steelers’ victory in Cincinnati on November 26.
Naturally, Kenny Pickett was the quarterback for the Steelers in their inaugural game against the Bengals. Rudolph takes over for the injured Pickett, and the Steelers may be more inclined to pass long now that Mitch Trubisky is out of the game. 13.1% of Rudolph’s throw attempts throughout his eight game starts in 2019 were downfield passes of 20 yards or more (statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus). This year, Pickett’s percentage of “deep shots” is a mere 8.6%.
Rudolph has completed 49 throws thrown 20 yards or more downfield in his career, with one interception. Out of 75 such “deep” attempts, Pickett has eight interceptions.
With the second-most passing yards (278), second-best passer rating (97.8), and second-best QBR (66.0) of the season, Pickett profited from the Steelers’ first game against the Bengals.
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